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One word can sum up the outlook for the Durban Conference of the Parties (COP) this year: uncertainty. But that may not be all bad. Last year’s meeting in Cancun, Mexico showed us all that sometimes low expectations may be the best way to get results at climate negotiations. Jump back a year further to 2009, when many observers said that parties meeting in Copenhagen, Denmark, were poised to deliver a new binding treaty for climate change cooperation. Instead, great expectations resulted in a mighty flop.
Disappointment in Copenhagen cost many global leaders a good deal of political capital – leaving them unwilling to make such a gamble the following year. But whether pre-COP doldrums prove to be a magic formula for lifting the fog at UNFCCC COPs remains to be seen. The show bill for this year includes several overview agendas and an array of unfinished texts, making it impossible to tell how this year’s climate spectacle will unfold.
Future of Kyoto up in the air
By all accounts, the headliner at this year’s COP is the Kyoto Protocol. Signed in 1997, the Protocol’s first and, to date, only period of implementation – “commitment period” in climate parlance – began in 2008 and will end in 2012. The Protocol envisages a second commitment period, and countries have spent over a decade negotiating the finer details of what the future of the Protocol would be. An array of influencing elements has derailed progress on the next term’s negotiations, and only a handful of redeeming qualities may keep the agreement alive.
Complete Post at:
http://ictsd.org/i/news/bioresreview/119747/
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