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Shipping and aviation represented around 3.2% and 2.1% respectively of global CO2 emissions in the mid-2000s. A wide range of projections and scenarios shows that both sectors are likely to grow over the coming decades with a resultant increase in CO2 emissions by 2050, despite mitigation efforts through technology, operations, and usage of low-carbon fuels. Here, a typical emission pathway that will limit global mean surface temperatures to no more than a 2°C increase by 2100 over pre-industrial temperatures is taken from prior work. This 2°C emission pathway makes no assumptions over the contributions of either the shipping or aviation sectors or of any particular nations’ efforts. It merely shows what the overall global emission reduction trend must be to reach the 2°C target. If current projections of emissions from shipping and aviation to 2050 are placed in the context of such an overall global 2°C emissions reduction pathway, then shipping might contribute between approximately 6% and 18% of median permissible total CO2-equivalent emissions in 2050 to meet the pathway, and aviation might contribute between approximately 4% and 15% of median total CO2- equivalent emissions, and the two sectors together might contribute between approximately 10% and 32% of total median CO2-equivalent emissions in 2050.
Conclusions
A 2°C emission pathway has been taken from the UNEP (2011) analysis, and shows that Total ‘allowable’ emissions in 2050 (on this pathway) would be between 18.0 and 23.2 Gtonnes of CO2-e. This estimate makes no assumptions over contributions of sectors or countries, it is simply an estimate of global CO2-e emissions that would result in a typical 2°C emission pathway (by 2100), at 2050. Taking available estimates of CO2 emissions projections from the literature to 2050 for aviation and shipping, aviation might represent between approximately 4% and 15% of median total CO2-e emissions in 2050; shipping might represent between approximately 6% and 18% of total CO2-e emissions. Taken together, shipping plus aviation emissions might represent between approximately 10% and 32% of total median CO2-e emissions in 2050 under a typical 2°C emission pathway. The emissions of aviation and shipping in these scenarios from the literature represent a variety of growth and technological scenarios, but no specific climate mitigation responses.
Download File[PDF]Source: David S. Lee, Ling Lim, Bethan Owen, Manchester Metropolitan University, Dalton Research Institute, Faculty of Science and Engineering
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